Nerdy Science Blog

Economists only say, but never do.
A review on Friedrich’s “The Pretence of Knowledge”

Introduction
Friedrich August von Hayek was a Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences. He dedicated a lecture titled “The Pretence of Knowledge” in memory of Alfred Nobel in 1974. Hayek expressed that he disagreed with the belief of Economic Science being similar to Physical Science. He highlighted that attempted imitation of physical science led to economic errors. This review mainly agrees with Hayek’s point of view in which economists who try to use scientific approaches in economics are biased and ignorant in their studies. However the review also refutes Hayek’s belief that natural science is a cooking recipe and that economics are the same as biology.

Scientific method, as outlined in Figure 1, is a process consisting of problem recognition, formulating hypothesis, designing scientific procedures, data collection and analysing, leading to a conclusion. This process is constantly improved to test the hypothesis. If the conclusion does not match the hypothesis, the constructed hypothesis may need to be altered or improvement of scientific procedures may be required.

Figure 1. Scientific method starts from question and background research. Hypothesis is then constructed, and experiments are designed, test, and refined. Data is then collected and analyzed to draw conclusion. If the conclusion does not validate the hypothesis, hypothesis and experiments will be reconstructed. (Image retrieved from Lawrence, 2009)

Correlation Cause and Effect
Natural science collects measurable and observable data to test the hypothesis. However this approach may not be suitable for economics study. Economics is a complex study of the market, which is built upon numerous individual decisions. Any event may affect how people think, and it is more complex than natural science. These events are often not measurable, and economists who try to use scientific approach to explain the economic phenomenon often make mistakes.

Correlation thinking is often used in the field of economics due to limited measurable data. The positive correlation between total employment and total money expenditure stated by Hayek is a classic example of correlation thinking. This correlation thinking misled people to believe that full employment can be achieved by maintaining appropriate level of total money expenditure. It is important to keep in mind that correlation is not causation. There are other variables that might affect total employment. Economists may use the wrong causation for prediction, which eventually lead to errors in economic policy making. Sometimes it is just a mere coincidence for a ridiculous positive correlation to occur, for example ice cream sales and the number of shark attacks on swimmers are positively co-related (Blastland, 2008).

No cooking recipe in both field of economics or natural sciences
Hayek also mentioned scientific procedures are like cooking recipes, which is different from economics. This is not a correct description. Scientists are always sceptical. They constantly test, improve, and challenge the existing knowledge. These properties make scientists different from economists. The idea of cooking recipes in any discipline of science will only stop it from advancing forward.

Economics study is based on past data
Economists face difficulties in creating experiment to prove the theory. This is different from any discipline of natural science which involves careful design of scientific procedures. The scientific experiment need to have controls to show the difference between test subjects and the control subjects. Some conditions need to be maintained constant and static to eliminate all factors that might affect the result of an experiment. It is the scientists, who break things down to study the subject in a very specialized and specific manner.

Economists do not have the luxury to create experiments and conduct them repeatedly. The quantitative data that economists are able to obtain are limited. As the market involve acts from thousands of individuals, households, and firms, many important facts are easily overlooked and not recorded. In natural science experiments, the data collecting process is crucial. Scientists need to look at collected data as a whole and not omit data which they assume are unimportant. Economists tend to analyse by omitting unimportant or unmeasurable data to come to conclusion to support their believed hypothesis. This bias observation made by economists will lead to wrong correlation and assumption of effect and cause, for example like total employment and aggregate demand. If economists wish to conduct an experiment, it may involve making a new policy and this will eventually affect everyone involved in the economic activity, and it cannot be set back to default to start over again.

Economic science is nowhere near biology
Hayek referred to economic science as biology. He pictured that both biology and economics are made up of large number of variables, and the structure is not dependent on the properties of individual elements. Elements are connected with each other and this relationship affects the complexity of the system, which he called ‘organized complexity’. It is not true that economics are similar to biology.

Biology study also involves the use of scientific method. There is no assumption in the study of biology. Although one element in biology is connected to another individual element, the biological experiment is also carefully designed, tested, and improved with variables and controls to examine the hypothesis. Biology contains many specialized disciplines. Biologists need to ensure that the conducted experiment is perfectly under control to eliminate any wrong results. Biologists do not study a subject as a whole, for example a microbiologist may only involve the study of a species of bacteria E. coli, instead of all E. coli or all bacteria existing in this world. Once a biologist makes a discovery in their specialized field, the discovery is examined by others in the same or different field.. This breakdown study of specialized area cannot be applied in economic studies, as its complexity does not allow economists to study a small area individually like biologists. Most importantly, biology does not imply ‘mere pattern predictions’, which is coined by Hayek for not using specific elements but general attributes to make prediction.

Conclusion
Hayek believed that economists who try to imitate natural science to be advanced in economic study will lead to the erroneous mistake. Economists tend to be bias in collecting data and they are not capable of designing scientific experiments to support their theory. In conclusion, economists can only be theorists, but not scientists. Economists only say, but never do.

References:
Blastland, M. (2008). Just because?. BBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2009, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7592579.stm.

Lawrence, B. (2009). Scientific Method. Retrieved August 1, 2009, from http://home.badc.rl.ac.uk/lawrence/blog/2009/04/16/scientific_method.

In microbiology class, students were told that microorganism can be cultured under right condition (temperature, nutrition, etc.).  So theoretically you can culture a flying pig in correct condition as well.

This is the evolution of apples!

(pic [via])

I read Greg Laden’s “The Buttocks is not an excretory organ“, and I gave it a deep thought. Honestly, I was confused. Are buttocks organ?

The agency said the show was indecent because “it depicts sexual organs and excretory organs — specifically an adult woman’s buttocks.”

The agency rejected the network’s argument that “the buttocks are not a sexual organ.”

—— Yahoo! News: Nude buttocks may cost ABC $1.4 million

(pic)

I messaged my friend asking this question. She told me that anus is an organ, for sure. I said anus is not the thing I was asking, I asked about B-U-T-T-O-C-K-S. Then she gave up, and emphasized that anus is an organ.

I checked the meaning of buttocks from thefreedictionary.com.

but·tock (n.)
1.
a. Either of the two rounded prominences on the human torso that are posterior to the hips and formed by the gluteal muscles and underlying structures.
b. The analogous part of the body on certain mammals.
2. buttocks The rear pelvic area of the human body.

In biology, organ means group of tissues that perform specific function(s). Functions of buttock? Sit, smack, and reduce momentum.

So pelvis meat, fat and muscle are part of the organ? I never remember I learnt that buttocks are organ.

I bought couple of DVDs from China back then, this is one of them.

Here’s the list:

1. Microorganisms
2. Cell nucleus
3. Archaea
4. Mitosis
5. Meiosis
6. Cell differentiation
7. The krebs cycle
8. Mitochondria
9. Neurotransmission
10. Hormones
11. Photosynthesis
12. Tropical biodiversity
13. Ecosystems

From UNIMAS (Universiti Malaysia Sarawak) Website

Theme : Zoonoses, Environment and Wildlife Ecological Dynamics
Date : 21st-22nd January 2008
Vanue :Centre for Academic Information Services (CAIS) Auditorium, UNIMAS
IMPORTANT NOTES:
+ Abstract of no more than 250 words by 20th November 2007 and Extended Abstracts by 20th December 2007
Organised by : Faculty of Resource Sciences and Technology
Contact Person / Email : abdullahmt@gmail.com , yeelingchong@gmail.com , khgandy@gmail.com , hratnawati@frst.unimas.my
Brochure : Brochure Zoonosis Symposium UNIMAS

Introduction:

The recent emergence and re-emergence of zoonotic diseases (e.g. Japanese encephalitis and Nipah viral infections, knowlesi malaria) in Malaysia emphasises the urgent need to identify infective agents in wildlife, study their transmission to humans and understand the complex epidemiological and ecological mechanisms that directly impact on the health of wildlife and humans. The Regional Zoonoses and Emerging Infectious Diseases Symposium will be held at the Universiti Malaysia Sarawak Centre for Academic Information Services (CAIS) Auditorium from 21st – 22nd January 2008 with the theme “Zoonoses, Environment and Wildlife Ecological Dynamics”. The main objectives of the Symposium are:

• To assemble, understand, document and disseminate previous and current state of knowledge from various researchers dealing with animal-related pathogens that are zoonotic and potentially zoonotic.
• To understand the gaps in our knowledge of the human-animal interface in the promotion of good human and wildlife health
• To initiate greater collaboration among Malaysian and international scientists in the promotion of good environmental management for the control of zoonotic diseases.

The fees are RM 350 (USD 100) for the Researchers and RM 250 (~USD 75)  for the students.
(pdf)

I bought these three DVDs from Guangzhou, China. They are Discovery Channel’s DVDs.

1. 100 Greatest Discoveries: Chemistry

Sometimes blue and red fluids mixed together do not just result in a purple fluid but can result in the creation of an exciting white powder. This is the magic of chemistry which studies the reactions and transformations of the various substances found in the world. Chemical compounds combine in different ways allowing sugar to be sweet and steel to be strong. From the early work of Dalton and Priestley to modern scientific quest to create atomic particles, explore the top discoveries in the world of Chemistry.

2. 100 Greatest Discoveries: Biology

Biology is concerned with the characteristics and behaviors of organisms, how species and individuals come into existence and the interactions they have with each other and with their environment. The history of biology traces the study of the living world from ancient to modern times. Biology was revolutionized when Robert Brown identified the cell nucleus through his studies on orchids. Scientists continued to make significant breakthroughs in biology including Charles Darwin’s theory of evolution by natural selection and how neurotransmitters allow cells to communicate with the body.

3. 100 Greatest Discoveries: Genetics

From the first ideas about inherited characteristics in plants to the complete sequencing of the human genome, discover why certain traits are passed through families and species in the amazing science of genetics. Find out how DNA carries the genetic information that encodes proteins and enables cell to reproduce and perform their functions. Join this program to learn the major discoveries and experiments from Mendel’s peas to the 21st century’s genetic age of the Human Genome Project.

Do you know how cheap these original DVDs are? They costed RMB 15 each, and the total of three is RMB 45, which is less than USD 7.

In remote region of Colombia, a small golden frog was discovered by a team of young scientists supported by the Conservation Leadership Programme (CLP). Until now no name is given to this frog but it is identified as dart frog which is highly poisonous. Beautiful things are harmful.

Don’t chop down all the trees in your country, who knows you may just destroy habitat for another unknown golden animals.

(link)

Mouse Factory in this post doesn’t refer to Mickey Mouse or Disney Land.

Besides parthenogenesis (the virgin-birth) of egg cells, another exciting news in biological recently is that researchers from Oregon Health & Science University has turned a mouse into some human liver cells manufacturing factory.

This not only change the way people change drugs, but also make things easier and cheaper for researchers to conduct their researches. Other than that, who knows your new liver will be a mouse-grown-human-liver, just kidding. If researchers manage to grow human liver on mouse, they can do the same on human too.

(picture source)

Last month I wrote an article about Wnt signaling system help in limb regeneration.

They know that as a human embryo matures, loads of cells await the command that directs each to become a certain type of cell with a particular function such as a heart-muscle cell. Once tissue formation begins, a red-light signal puts the brakes on cell growth before it gets out of control.

Dubbed Wnt/Beta-catenin signaling, cell-to-cell conversations control the fate of these as-yet undeveloped cells in the embryo.

—— LiveScience.com: How a Zebrafish Regrows a Fin

There are more researches show that the Wnt signaling system promote tissue regeneration.

Actually this fin-regrow-research do help in saving sharks. You can keep a shark in your aquarium and repeatedly cutting of its fins, the fins will regrow! Is it better to torture one or kills lots of them?
(Picture Source)