Nerdy Science Blog

Economists only say, but never do.
A review on Friedrich’s “The Pretence of Knowledge”

Introduction
Friedrich August von Hayek was a Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences. He dedicated a lecture titled “The Pretence of Knowledge” in memory of Alfred Nobel in 1974. Hayek expressed that he disagreed with the belief of Economic Science being similar to Physical Science. He highlighted that attempted imitation of physical science led to economic errors. This review mainly agrees with Hayek’s point of view in which economists who try to use scientific approaches in economics are biased and ignorant in their studies. However the review also refutes Hayek’s belief that natural science is a cooking recipe and that economics are the same as biology.

Scientific method, as outlined in Figure 1, is a process consisting of problem recognition, formulating hypothesis, designing scientific procedures, data collection and analysing, leading to a conclusion. This process is constantly improved to test the hypothesis. If the conclusion does not match the hypothesis, the constructed hypothesis may need to be altered or improvement of scientific procedures may be required.

Figure 1. Scientific method starts from question and background research. Hypothesis is then constructed, and experiments are designed, test, and refined. Data is then collected and analyzed to draw conclusion. If the conclusion does not validate the hypothesis, hypothesis and experiments will be reconstructed. (Image retrieved from Lawrence, 2009)

Correlation Cause and Effect
Natural science collects measurable and observable data to test the hypothesis. However this approach may not be suitable for economics study. Economics is a complex study of the market, which is built upon numerous individual decisions. Any event may affect how people think, and it is more complex than natural science. These events are often not measurable, and economists who try to use scientific approach to explain the economic phenomenon often make mistakes.

Correlation thinking is often used in the field of economics due to limited measurable data. The positive correlation between total employment and total money expenditure stated by Hayek is a classic example of correlation thinking. This correlation thinking misled people to believe that full employment can be achieved by maintaining appropriate level of total money expenditure. It is important to keep in mind that correlation is not causation. There are other variables that might affect total employment. Economists may use the wrong causation for prediction, which eventually lead to errors in economic policy making. Sometimes it is just a mere coincidence for a ridiculous positive correlation to occur, for example ice cream sales and the number of shark attacks on swimmers are positively co-related (Blastland, 2008).

No cooking recipe in both field of economics or natural sciences
Hayek also mentioned scientific procedures are like cooking recipes, which is different from economics. This is not a correct description. Scientists are always sceptical. They constantly test, improve, and challenge the existing knowledge. These properties make scientists different from economists. The idea of cooking recipes in any discipline of science will only stop it from advancing forward.

Economics study is based on past data
Economists face difficulties in creating experiment to prove the theory. This is different from any discipline of natural science which involves careful design of scientific procedures. The scientific experiment need to have controls to show the difference between test subjects and the control subjects. Some conditions need to be maintained constant and static to eliminate all factors that might affect the result of an experiment. It is the scientists, who break things down to study the subject in a very specialized and specific manner.

Economists do not have the luxury to create experiments and conduct them repeatedly. The quantitative data that economists are able to obtain are limited. As the market involve acts from thousands of individuals, households, and firms, many important facts are easily overlooked and not recorded. In natural science experiments, the data collecting process is crucial. Scientists need to look at collected data as a whole and not omit data which they assume are unimportant. Economists tend to analyse by omitting unimportant or unmeasurable data to come to conclusion to support their believed hypothesis. This bias observation made by economists will lead to wrong correlation and assumption of effect and cause, for example like total employment and aggregate demand. If economists wish to conduct an experiment, it may involve making a new policy and this will eventually affect everyone involved in the economic activity, and it cannot be set back to default to start over again.

Economic science is nowhere near biology
Hayek referred to economic science as biology. He pictured that both biology and economics are made up of large number of variables, and the structure is not dependent on the properties of individual elements. Elements are connected with each other and this relationship affects the complexity of the system, which he called ‘organized complexity’. It is not true that economics are similar to biology.

Biology study also involves the use of scientific method. There is no assumption in the study of biology. Although one element in biology is connected to another individual element, the biological experiment is also carefully designed, tested, and improved with variables and controls to examine the hypothesis. Biology contains many specialized disciplines. Biologists need to ensure that the conducted experiment is perfectly under control to eliminate any wrong results. Biologists do not study a subject as a whole, for example a microbiologist may only involve the study of a species of bacteria E. coli, instead of all E. coli or all bacteria existing in this world. Once a biologist makes a discovery in their specialized field, the discovery is examined by others in the same or different field.. This breakdown study of specialized area cannot be applied in economic studies, as its complexity does not allow economists to study a small area individually like biologists. Most importantly, biology does not imply ‘mere pattern predictions’, which is coined by Hayek for not using specific elements but general attributes to make prediction.

Conclusion
Hayek believed that economists who try to imitate natural science to be advanced in economic study will lead to the erroneous mistake. Economists tend to be bias in collecting data and they are not capable of designing scientific experiments to support their theory. In conclusion, economists can only be theorists, but not scientists. Economists only say, but never do.

References:
Blastland, M. (2008). Just because?. BBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2009, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/magazine/7592579.stm.

Lawrence, B. (2009). Scientific Method. Retrieved August 1, 2009, from http://home.badc.rl.ac.uk/lawrence/blog/2009/04/16/scientific_method.

Sauna is a ‘sweat bathing’ facility that has been widely used today. Stones are often used to exert high temperature in a room by pouring water over hot stone to produce steam. The heat accumulates in the room making it humid or hot. This promotes sweating, hence relax a person. There are many psychological and physical benefits for using sauna.

The sauna session can improve a person’s social affair. People can talk to each other disrobing themselves in the sauna, and this definitely gives them a special bonding between each other.

Relaxation can also be achieved through sweating cause by the heat in the sauna. This further leads to mind cleansing of a person. Studies (Kukkonen-Harjula & Kauppinen, 2006) showed that sauna is suitable for people of all age, and it does not post any health risks to pregnant women, and patients with high blood pressure, coronary heart disease and congestive heart failure (provided they are medicated). It was also found that sauna can help musculoskeletal disorders patient to relieve pain.

It should be reminded that people suffering from toxaemia might not be suitable to use sauna. For those who are taking antihypertensive medication may cause hypotension after bathing.

The earliest sauna known was a pit dug in a slope in the ground as bathroom in winter, and it is not Finnish invention. There are many types of sauna available these days, such as using a metal woodstove, or kiuas with a chimney instead of using hot stones.

Reference:
Kukkonen-Harjula, K. and Kauppinen, K. (2006), Health Effects and Risks of Sauna Bathing, Int J Circumpolar Health, vol. 65, no. 3, pp. 195 – 205.

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There are a lot of diet pills, weight loss programs, books and devices in the market to help people to lose weight, but how do you know which one is the best to try?

It is always good to see what others say about the product before you start using one. This can prevent you from suffering placebo products, or even worse, the products that have severe side effects. DietBlogTalk.com is a site that gathers the diet reviews from the consumers. This website is open for consumers to give comment to the diet products by writing posts. Consumers can classify each posting as positive, negative, or undecided. In order to ensure that all comments and reviews give the correct information to other consumers, they are being reviewed by site editors before they are available for public viewing. The popular products will be put together by the editors with summary provided for easier viewing.

Although it is recommended to buy any products or services which has more than 75% customer satisfactory, I personally think that you should always go for those with at least 85% satisfactory. Choosing a product to help you is a shortcut to control your weight, but please do not over-relying on these dietary products as exercise and proper diet are the most important in weight control.

Pinhole glasses is a lightweight plastic alternative eyeglasses. The main benefit of pinhole glasses is to improve vision clarity and resolution.

I have serious acquired myopia (short-sighted). I was pretty surprised when I received the glasses as it is extremely light and fashion looking. I put it on and the plastic lenses are sparkling making me like a rock star. There are a lot of holes on the lenses.

I test this pinhole glasses in several ways, which are the reading distance, and different light conditions. As mentioned earlier, I am short sighted. I can’t see things that are too far away. By wearing the pinhole glasses, I can read things which are further than the normal maximum reading distance.

When I was reading at lower light source, the words can still be seen clearly with pinhole glasses. However I love to lie on my bed reading books, and usually there is weak light as the book was not facing the light source. It is hard to read with pinhole glasses in this condition, and I do not encourage that. With this pair of pinhole glasses, I got to read with correct reading position and sufficient light source (as only limited light can pass through the glasses). I also found it hard to read with pinhole glasses when my eyes were too tired. After wearing it for a long time and you take it off, you got to experience honeycomb effect by seeing pinholes without wearing it (just for a while).

This pair of pinhole glasses is suitable for people suffering from myopia, hyperopia, presbyopia, astigmatism, computer vision syndrome or cataracts. It is also good for adjusting your reading position as after wearing it for longer period, you will try to sit properly and read things at proper distance and sufficient light source. It is also inexpensive as each pair of glasses is only $14.99.

I tried immune attack.  When I initially installed this game, there was something wrong saying that it can’t find the directory (which look like a registrar number).  So I chose a random directory for it to be installed at.

I am using Windows Vista, and I met all the requirements to play the game smoothly.  However when I started the game, it lagged my laptop (I haven’t experience it for quite a while since I bought this laptop).

The graphics are amazing, and there are nice little explanation that tells you what is what.  There is no instruction page in the game itself telling you the controls.  The top left corner showed your current nanobot speed, your bot health and also the marker of the drone.  Nanobot is the one you see in the screenshot above, whereas drone allows you to see smaller stuff (but you can’t summon it out anytime you want).  The bottom left showed you the map and where the location of the target.  In the screenshot above, the hula-hoop like objects tell you whether you are heading the right direction or not.  If you are on the right direction, they will show green colour (like the ones in the screenshot).

I quit the game after managing to get monocytes through the blood vessels.  The game made me feel dizzy.  It jammed a while when I was trying to exit.  I guess they can increase the speed of the nanobot and drones.  They are just too slow.

I submitted this blog to blogged.com for a review.  Amy Liu from blogged.com informed me that this blog had been rated for 8.3 out of 10.  The rating is based on frequency of updates, relevance of content, site design, and writing style.

To My Dear Fellow Nerdy Bloggers,

We still has 1.7 points to improve.  Buck up!